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Better Forecasting with Historical Data and Judgment
A recent article on forecasting presents historical data and judgment as an either-or choice. We disagree. In our view, the art of forecasting requires both and the understanding of how much weight to place on each depending on the circumstances.
Read MoreDon’t throw out the data along with the failed concept
Product management and marketing teams often use primary research to test new product and service concepts. Before investing millions of dollars and years of development efforts they want to know if the concept has legs. Sometimes the research shows that the market does not have enough appetite for the concept to justify further investment. At that point the research has done its job. But often the results can provide additional value to the organization that is forgotten.
Read MoreShould M&A due diligence incorporate primary market research?
The due diligence process for mergers and acquisitions is intended to validate the decision and minimize risk. Unfortunately the resources and rigor devoted to the activity can be undermined by common biases that distort reasoning.
Read MoreIf organizations value it, why won’t they pay for it?
A client recently asked us this questions as part of a market sizing exercise. Fortunately this client asked the question before entering the market and was able to plan accordingly. The buzz surrounding new products or technologies often attracts established vendor that can find after investing in a new category the market does not live up to their expectations in terms of market size or revenue growth. The disconnect stems from behavioral gaps in the typical market adoption curve.
Read MoreFirst mover or fast follower for entering new markets?
Different studies in back-to-back issues of The Harvard Business Review make conflicting claims about the importance of being the first to market. Can they both be true?
Read MoreUncover hidden causes of slow adoption rates for more accurate opportunity assessment
Why does the adoption rate of many new enterprise technologies fall short of expectations? The answer is often simple: The market isn’t ready. It may have an interest in the technologies and understand the potential benefits but practical realities prevent the market from buying. Understanding these barriers will lead to a more accurate market opportunity assessment, and improved adoption rates.
Read MoreWhat’s really in the glass?
When making any business decision–from rebranding to evaluating a new market opportunity–it is easy to view the glass as half full. The challenge is to understand what is really in the glass. Even with the best intentions it can be difficult to step back and evaluate the situation with an objective eye.
Read MoreCloud adoption follows old patterns
The hype and backlash surrounding cloud applications shares many similarities with the market dynamics that occurred when organizations shifted from homegrown solutions to third-party commercial applications. As Mark Twain said, “History does not repeat itself, but it does rhyme.” Cloud applications are an evolution, not a revolution. They continue ongoing trends and are an inevitable part of the future IT infrastructure for most organizations. This post outlines the parallels in the adoption of these two technologies and identifies some implications for software firms, whether they offer cloud-based solutions today or not.
Read MoreEntering new B2B technology markets and the planning fallacy
When B2B technology vendors enter new markets they often find that their success falls short of their expectations. Some of this is due to their go-to-market strategy, competitor actions and unpredictable market changes. However, many technology vendors fall victim to the planning fallacy – the tendency for individuals and organizations to under estimate challenges and to over estimate their chances of success. A useful for tool for mitigating the planning fallacy is reference class comparison.
Read MoreDistinguishing the Next Big Thing from the Next Big Sell
A recent article in the MIT Sloan Management Review provides practical guidelines to help IT buyers make better decisions about which new innovations to adopt. The article points out the risks of being persuaded to invest in new technology by the hype that surrounds it, only to be disappointed by the lack of business value it provides. They advise IT buyers to assess where and how quickly the technology is being adopted, the pace and success of implementations, and value achieved by other companies that have implemented it.
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